Introduction: Navigating the 2026 Freight Frontier

The global supply chain is currently facing a dual-speed transformation. On one hand, we are witnessing a historic, structural re-engineering of where the world’s goods are made. On the other hand, we are bracing for an immediate operational "shock to the system" as traditional trade routes prepare to reopen.

To help us navigate this complexity, we are joined by Klaus Lysdal, Vice President of Procurement at iContainers.

Klaus is a veteran of the logistics industry, known for his deep expertise in market volatility and carrier relations. Today, he joins us to discuss the end of the "China Plus One" era and how the industry must prepare for the impending "Capacity Tsunami", a shift that could see global shipping capacity surge by up to 17% almost overnight.

In this interview, Klaus will break down how iContainers is helping shippers turn this manual chaos into a strategic advantage, moving from reactive shipping to autonomous, data-driven procurement.

Segment 1: From "China + 1" to "China Plus Many"

The 40% Threshold: Klaus, China’s share of US imports has officially fallen below 40% for the first time. Is this a permanent structural shift, and what does it mean for the future of the "China Plus One" strategy?

Time will tell, really. It is likely more than a cyclical adjustment—it may reflect a structural rebalancing that could persist. While China will remain a critical manufacturing hub, importers may continue to diversify based on some hard learnings from the past few years leading back to the supply chain challenges that the Covid 19 outbreak brought with it. Cost pressures, geopolitical risk, regulatory scrutiny, and supply chain shocks have changed the game as we knew it a few years ago. Going forward, the most resilient strategies will not replace China; rather, they will likely integrate it into a broader, multi-country sourcing portfolio that can adapt as conditions change.

That said, while many importers have likely learned that diversifying sourcing can be a smart way to manage risk, some may find it comes down to cost and practicality. Even with higher tariffs, Chinese suppliers may still offer the most competitive option when scale, reliability, and speed are considered. In contrast, finding alternative suppliers that can match those capabilities quickly isn’t always easy. In some cases, infrastructure in newer sourcing locations may still be developing, which can introduce added complexity and make those options harder to rely on consistently.

China has spent decades building a highly integrated manufacturing and logistics ecosystem, and that foundation remains a major advantage. Its role as a global manufacturing hub is supported by established infrastructure, dense supplier networks, and operational efficiency—areas where emerging markets are making progress but may take time to fully catch up.

It will be interesting to see how this evolves over time. The open question is whether diversification continues to gain momentum, or whether China’s efficiency and competitiveness lead importers to accept certain risks in exchange for greater supply chain stability and cost control.

The Cambodia Factor: We’ve seen Cambodia sourcing grow 6x over the last decade. As procurement leaders look to these emerging markets, what are the primary logistics hurdles they must overcome?

Cambodia’s rapid growth highlights both the opportunity and the challenge of emerging sourcing markets. The primary logistics hurdles are infrastructure maturity, port and inland connectivity, capacity and predictability. Limited carrier options, feeder dependence, and existing equipment flows. All potential areas that can lead to logistics challenges that you generally do not see in China. It is something to plan for when sourcing from emerging markets.

Building Resilience: How should shippers be leveraging this trade diversification to build a network that isn't just different, but more resilient and flexible than the one they had five years ago?

It’s really about creating options, rather than simply spreading freight across more countries. That means having multiple routing options, along with the data and contingency plans needed to reroute cargo or shift volumes quickly when conditions change, minimizing inventory impact. During COVID and past labor disruptions, many importers were caught unprepared and were forced to absorb higher costs or significant delays. Most shippers today appear to be far better positioned to manage and mitigate those risks than they were just a few years ago.

Segment 2: The "Capacity Tsunami" (The Suez Return)

The Return to Suez: A potential return to the Suez route could reduce transit times by two weeks. We’ve called this a "Capacity Tsunami: how will an instant 12% to 17% increase in global capacity impact the current market?

A return to the Suez Canal would effectively inject a sudden, significant increase in global capacity by shortening transit times and freeing vessels currently used to maintain schedules due to longer Cape of Good Hope transit. In a market already facing softening demand, this “capacity tsunami” is likely to put significant downward pressure on rates. However, the impact will not be evenly distributed—trade lanes, vessel sizes, and carrier alliances will experience it differently. While carriers will only gradually resume use of the Suez Canal, it is almost inevitable that supply will re-enter the market faster than demand can absorb it.

As transit times lengthen as parts of the fleet pass through the Suez Canal, congestion may arise at key transit hubs due to the higher influx of arrivals.

The Rate Cliff: Shippers have been battling high costs for years. Should they expect a "race to the bottom" for spot rates in February, or is there a hidden catch?

While shippers should expect spot rates to come down sharply, a true “race to the bottom” is not guaranteed. Carriers have more tools than in past cycles—blank sailings, slow steaming, and disciplined capacity management—to prevent a complete collapse. Mergers and acquisitions over the past decade have reduced the number of players on the field, which has reduced price declines in favor of gaining market share, a pattern we may have seen more regularly in the past.

Additionally, congestion risk, fuel costs, and labor uncertainty can quickly reintroduce volatility. The hidden catch is that while rates may fall, reliability may also fluctuate, making total landed cost—not just freight rates—the real metric to watch.

The European Bottleneck: Faster transits often lead to vessel bunching. How is iContainers preparing partners for terminal congestion and the "manual chaos" expected at European ports as ships arrive simultaneously?

Faster transits increase the risk of vessel bunching, particularly at European gateways that are already operating near capacity. iContainers is preparing partners by focusing on proactive planning and visibility. This includes dynamic routing options, early booking strategies, close coordination with terminals, and real-time monitoring to manage rollovers and delays. We’re also emphasizing contingency planning—alternative ports, inland routing flexibility, and clear communication—so shippers can navigate the “manual chaos” without losing control of their supply chains.

We believe it is always best to have an open dialogue with clients, present real-life case scenarios, and guide them to the best solution for their needs and supply chain.