2025 Black Friday Freight Forecast: What to Expect for International Shipping

The Calm Before the Storm

Every November, the global freight industry braces for one of its most intense challenges: the Black Friday and 11.11 shopping surge.

In 2025, international shipping networks will again be tested by extraordinary e-commerce volumes, tight capacity, and volatile freight rates.

But this year's dynamics look different - shaped by shifting consumer demand, macroeconomic uncertainty, and ongoing supply chain realignments. For importers and exporters, understanding these trends early is key to securing space, controlling costs, and meeting customer expectations.

1. Freight Rates: Moderate Volatility, Early Pressure

After two years of relative stabilization, freight rates are expected to climb moderately heading into Q4 2025. Analysts project:

• Ocean freight rates could rise 15-25% on Asia-Europe and Asia-North America lanes by late October.
• Air freight may see sharper, short-term surges - up to 40% increases during peak weeks - as e-commerce retailers rush to restock fast-moving goods.

The trigger? Limited capacity and stronger consumer confidence. Retailers that kept inventories lean in 2024 are expected to replenish aggressively this season.

Early booking remains the best defense. Platforms offering digital rate comparison and pre-season booking (like iContainers) allow shippers to secure better pricing before the market tightens.

2. Capacity Constraints and Equipment Shortages

Despite improved vessel scheduling reliability, congestion risks persist.

• Container imbalances are expected in key Chinese export hubs such as Ningbo and Yantian.
• European ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg may face delays due to increased inbound volumes and terminal labor shortages.
• Air cargo networks will compete for uplift capacity as airlines continue balancing passenger and freight operations.

Shippers relying heavily on a single mode or route will feel the pressure first.

Diversifying between ocean and air freight - or leveraging less congested secondary ports - can help maintain consistency even under tight global conditions.

3. Port Congestion: Back, But More Localized

The good news: 2025 isn't expected to see the same global congestion meltdown that paralyzed ports during the pandemic.

The bad news: localized slowdowns are likely.

• U.S. East Coast ports (Savannah, New York/New Jersey) may see moderate backlogs from mid-November onward.
• Southeast Asian transshipment hubs, including Singapore and Port Klang, could face short-term spikes in dwell times.
• Mediterranean gateways, such as Valencia and Piraeus, may experience longer wait times due to increased feeder traffic.

To mitigate these risks, shippers should stagger export schedules and use visibility tools that track vessel ETA changes in real time.

4. Customs and Regulatory Slowdowns

When global volumes surge, customs clearance becomes a common bottleneck.

Importers should review documentation accuracy, tariff updates, and pre-declaration procedures early.

The iContainers Customs Clearance guide explains how to minimize risk by ensuring every shipment meets destination requirements - especially for first-time e-commerce exporters scaling internationally during Black Friday.

Automation and pre-clearing through digital systems can cut customs dwell times by up to 40%, giving shippers a valuable edge during congested weeks.

5. Strategies for Importers and Exporters

Plan. Diversify. Communicate.
The fundamentals haven't changed, but their urgency has. To stay resilient:

• Book freight capacity early (ideally before mid-October).
• Split shipments between modes or ports to avoid bottlenecks.
• Increase lead time buffers for both inbound and outbound flows.
• Share real-time tracking with customers to maintain transparency.
• Collaborate closely with logistics providers that offer integrated digital visibility.

Those who treat logistics as a strategic investment - not a last-minute scramble - will be the ones delivering on time and on budget this Black Friday.

6. Outlook: A Test of Agility

The 2025 Black Friday season will again push international logistics networks to their limits. Rates will fluctuate, port congestion will reappear in pockets, and customs procedures will tighten under the weight of record-breaking e-commerce flows. Yet for prepared businesses, this period also represents a moment to demonstrate operational strength and adaptability.

Success this year won't depend on speed alone - it will rely on visibility, foresight, and coordination across partners and regions. Companies that plan early, communicate transparently, and diversify their logistics strategies will not only weather the surge but emerge stronger.

At iContainers, we continue to support importers and exporters through these evolving challenges - providing transparent freight management, flexible air freight and ocean shipping options, and guidance on customs clearance to keep global trade moving efficiently throughout the Black Friday season and beyond.